If you wish to maximise your chances of winning at Baccarat there are two arrows to your bow. The first of these is to find an online casino that gives you the best possible payout on a tie result.

Most land based casinos offer a payout of 8 to 1 on ties. This is traditional and it is rare to find a casino that digresses from this. However, the completion amongst online casinos is such that they tend to give better opportunities to their clients and there land based equivalents. As a result if you shop around you will find that it is quite possible to find online casinos that pay out 9 to 1 on a tie.

This is very important as there is a huge difference to the house edge between 8 to 1 and 9 to 1 payouts. Overall the chances of a tie with an 8 deck shoe are 1 chance in 9.52 and in a 6 deck shoe, 1 chance in 9.50. This means that the house edge on 8 to 1 payouts is about 14.4%, however with a 9 to 1 payout this reduces to around 4.8% which is a huge difference.

Your second arrow is to play only when the expected probability of a tie is greater than the average probability of 1 in 9.50. If you could find occasions when the probability of a tie exceeded 1 in 9 and restricted your play to those occasions, then over time you would certainly win. The fact that in a land based casino with real deals rather than those based on random number generators) the cards are not immediately replaced in the shoe means that the quality of the remaining cards in the shoe will constantly evolve; by quality we mean the propensity for a subsequent deal resulting in a tie. The hard part is detecting when this might happen.

To prove this just considers an example. As stated above, when the shoe contains cards values in the same proportions as in a fresh deck, then the chance of a tie is about 1 in 9.52. However, if you remove say all of one card value, say the eights, then the chances of a tie will increase as the number of possible hands will decrease.

Don’t ever expect to get as far as exceeding a 1 in 9 chance of a tie, but some careful card counting will allow you to spot opportunities when the chances of a tie are better than 1 in 9.5.